The "Benefits" of Air Pollution in China

In a Bloomberg article about a new law in China requiring adult children to visit their parents, Adam Minter provided a picture of the challenges China faces in caring for its growing elderly population:

In 2012, Zhu Yong, deputy director of the Chinese government’s National Committee on Aging, told a Beijing conference on pension reform that in 2013 the number of Chinese over age 60 would exceed 200 million; it would peak in 2050 at 483 million.

In China’s traditional agrarian culture, those aging relatives would live with, and be supported by, their children. But the country’s modernizing economy means children are moving far from their parents to work. Moreover, thanks in large part to population-control policies, Zhu estimates that China’s workforce will shrink to 713 million by 2050, down 24.2 percent from 2011, leaving fewer children to support aging parents. This demographic crunch is creating something relatively new in China: empty-nesters.

And in the The New York Times Edward Wong reported on research indicating that air pollution is shortening people's lives in China:

Southern Chinese on average have lived at least five years longer than their northern counterparts in recent decades because of the destructive health effects of pollution from the widespread use of coal in the north, according to a study released Monday by a prominent American science journal...

The results provide a new assessment of the enormous cost of China’s environmental degradation, which in the north is partly a result of the emissions of deadly pollutants from coal-driven energy generation. The researchers project that the 500 million Chinese who live north of the Huai River will lose 2.5 billion years of life expectancy because of outdoor air pollution...

“This adds to the growing mountain of evidence of the heavy cost of China’s pollution,” said Alex L. Wang, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies Chinese environmental policies. “Other studies have shown significant near-term harms, in the form of illness, lost work days and even risks to children beginning in utero. This study suggests that the long-term harms of coal pollution might be worse than we thought.”

Each of these articles raises plenty of issues and questions on its own. But together they raise a particular set of questions. Is pollution slowing down the rate at which China's population ages? If so, will pollution reduce the severity of future challenges China faces in caring for its older citizens?

The possibility of something detrimental to public health having a potential benefit of sorts is reminiscent of research indicating that there could be a financial benefit to not preventing smoking or obesity. Due to people living longer and facing other health issues, preventing smoking or obesity could increase the overall amount of money spent on health care. For examples of this research, see articles in the The New England Journal of Medicine here and PLOS Medicine here (though also worth pointing out that increased health care costs due to people not smoking may be offset by gains in productivity).

Of course, just because something has a benefit doesn't mean it is "good". It can depend on one's perspective. As the authors of the article in the The New England Journal of Medicine noted:

... we believe that in formulating public health policy, whether or not smokers impose a net financial burden ought to be of very limited importance. Public health policy is concerned with health. Smoking is a major health hazard, so the objective of a policy on smoking should be simple and clear: smoking should be discouraged.

In a similar sense, I don't expect China to encourage the production of air pollution. But for someone making cold calculations, air pollution may have a "silver lining" if it slows down the rate at which China's population ages.

I doubt most people in China would see it that way, though. Growing old without support may not be part of the "Chinese Dream", but neither is dying from pollution.

Deceived by the Sky

This morning I noticed that the air seemed relatively clear--meaning I didn't notice a haze in front of buildings across the street and the sky had a spirit-lifting bluish color.

The sky in Beijing around 9:40 a.m.

I assumed this meant it was at least a semi-decent air day. So I was surprised when I later looked at the Beijing air quality reports provided by the U.S. Embassy and saw the reading for 9:00 a.m.:

06-23-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 61.0; 154; Unhealthy (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
— BeijingAir (@BeijingAir) June 23, 2013

No matter how blue the sky may appear, I wouldn't consider an "unhealthy" air quality index (AQI) of 154 to be semi-decent.

I then thought about my days in Shanghai where it is not uncommon to hear people say something like "yeah, the air isn't great here, but it's much better than Beijing!" So I was curious to see what the U.S. Consultate in Shanghai reported at the same time:

06-23-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 63.0; 155; Unhealthy (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
— Con Gen ShanghaiAir (@CGShanghaiAir) June 23, 2013

155, I'd call that a draw.

For another comparison, I checked more recent readings while writing this post:

06-23-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 40.0; 112; Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
— BeijingAir (@BeijingAir) June 23, 2013

06-23-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 74.0; 161; Unhealthy (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
— Con Gen ShanghaiAir (@CGShanghaiAir) June 23, 2013

Shanghai's 161 is in a different category than Beijing's 112. We had a winner.

And now I wondered how a U.S. city would compare. I found that at the same time (8:00 p.m. Saturday night) current readings in Central Los Angeles, one of the most polluted cities in the US, indicated an AQI of 59 and the forecast for Sunday was 45--considered "good" for a 24 hour period. For the U.S. it's nothing to be especially proud of, but a 45 would seem great to me right now.

Of course, these are a very small number of data points. They're representative in some regards, but I wouldn't make any strong conclusions based on them alone. My main points for now are basic. I found it easy to think the air was OK when in fact it wasn't. And even if Shanghai has not seen some of the extreme pollution that can occur in Beijing, there's still good reason for people in Shanghai to also be concerned.

Pollution's Extensive Impact in China

As I wrote in an earlier post, China's pollution problems deserves the regular attention they receive. In that spirit, I will share a few pieces which together show there is no single way to measure pollution's full impact in China.

1. Despite it being the focus of many reports, pollution doesn't only have negative health consequences. For example, Xinhua reported that one famous Chinese director believes pollution is affecting his creative process.

"Cornered by the terrible weather, I have nowhere to go," said Chen Kaige, a frontrunner of Chinese cinema's "fifth generation" and a newly elected member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). "I am unable to focus on my artistic creation."

"I was born and bred in Beijing. I know what the weather was like in the old days," said 61-year-old Chen, describing the current air pollution as "weird," "appalling" and "unbelievable."

Read the article here for more about Chen's hope to "raise more awareness on environmental pollution".

2. However real the problem may be, unfocused movie directors would not likely be considered by many to be one of China's bigger concerns. Large numbers of protests are another story though. In Bloomberg, Xin Zhou and Peter Hirschberg reported how some Chinese government officials are paying attention to a shift in what is motivating "mass incidents":

Pollution has replaced land disputes as the main cause of social unrest in China, a retired Communist Party official said, as delegates to the country’s legislature lamented environmental degradation.

China now sees 30,000 to 50,000 so-called mass incidents every year, Chen Jiping, a former leading member of the party’s Committee of Political and Legislative Affairs, said yesterday. Increased use of mobile phones and the Internet has allowed protesters to show their anger more effectively, he said.

“The major reason for mass incidents is the environment, and everyone cares about it now,” Chen told reporters at a meeting of the Chinese People’s Political and Consultative Conference, where he’s a member. “If you want to build a plant, and if the plant may cause cancer, how can people remain calm?”

Read the article here for more about the pollution-related protesting.

3. There's another issue related to pollution that can quickly catch the attention of many people: money. Meena Thiruvengadam in The Financialist looked at the economic impact of China's smog:

Various studies have estimated the economic impact of China’s pollution, and several sources suggest that illness, premature death and lost productivity could be costing the country upwards of $100 billion a year.

The World Bank estimated that illnesses and premature deaths linked to China’s pollution cost it about $100 billion – the equivalent of 3 percent of the country’s annual gross domestic product – in 2009 alone. A separate study by Greenpeace and Peking University estimates particulate pollution cost four major cities more than $1 billion and caused more than 8,000 premature deaths last year.

Read the article here for more about projected long-term financial costs of pollution in China.

4. Thiruvengadam also pointed out that China's pollution is making it more challenging for companies to convince workers to move there. On a related note, one recent example highlights how the environment is causing some people already living in China to consider whether they should stay there. After 13 years in China, Dutch entrepreneur Marc van der Chijs recently left for greener pasteurs, or at least bluer skies:

Our main criteria for a new home were based on a different lifestyle for the family: a place with more nature around us, with a better air quality and where I would not have to work 24/7 anymore...

I will miss China. I will miss the fast-paced business life, the amazing clubs and restaurants in Shanghai, and the luxury of having staff at home to help you with everything. What I won’t miss is the air pollution (which was the #1 reason for us to leave), the traffic jams and the slow, restricted Internet. Every country has its advantages and disadvantages, and although the balance has shifted a bit recently the advantages of living in China have always outweighed the downsides for me. If it was purely for business reasons I would likely stay, but I have a family with 2 young kids now and I also need to think of them.

Read the full post here for more about a family's move from China to Canada.

5. And bringing the topic back to public health, some possibly relevant context for why Marc van der Chijs mentioned his kids can be found in a policy paper by the American Academy of Pediatrics: "Ambient Air Pollution: Health Hazards to Children":

Children and infants are among the most susceptible to many of the air pollutants. In addition to associations between air pollution and respiratory symptoms, asthma exacerbations, and asthma hospitalizations, recent studies have found links between air pollution and preterm birth, infant mortality, deficits in lung growth, and possibly, development of asthma.

Read the paper here for much, much more.

The Chinese government is most unlikely to be swayed by a single foreigner's departure or Chinese director's complaints. But stifled creative output, citizens protesting, economic losses, foreigners avoiding or leaving China, and health problems for the young are all parts of an immense challenge facing China. Its response, or lack of response, will have numerous consequences. Already, the consequences of pollution are being felt in many ways.

Another Taste of Pollution in China

There are several notable recent stories about China's pollution. I don't think this is a topic that can grow old. In so many respects, pollution presents a major challenge for China. And some of its impact will be felt throughout the world. You might not be in Beijing, Shijiazhuang, or Changsha to taste the air, but here is a taste of the news:

1. Often the focus is on air pollution, but air is not the only issue. For example, soil pollution is an area of concern. How bad is soil pollution in China? Well, it's hard to say since as Tania Branigan reported in The Guardian:

China's leading environmental watchdog has refused to disclose the results of a major national soil pollution study on grounds of state secrecy, according to a lawyer who requested the report's disclosure...

Beijing-based lawyer Dong Zhengwei told the state-run Global Times newspaper that he had requested the findings of the five-year, 1bn yuan (£100m) study because he believed soil pollution could be a serious safety threat.

But the ministry of environmental protection told him it would only release some details because the full report was a state secret, he said...

"The environmental ministry has been releasing real-time information about air pollution even though the air in Beijing was so bad last month. In contrast, soil pollution is a 'state secret'. Does this suggest that the land is contaminated much worse than the air?"

Read the article here for more details about estimates of soil pollution in China and signs of growing public concern about pollution.

2. One man in China had a creative idea for how to draw attention to the pollution in a nearby creek: he challenged local officials to swim it. As Tom Phillips reported in The Telegraph, the man received more attention than he bargained for:

Mr Chen, a farmer who has spent the last decade fighting pollution, posted his challenge on the internet, hoping it would trigger government action.

Instead, his daughter says he was severely beaten by a gang of baton-wielding men at around 6am last Sunday.

"My father was alone at home," said 32-year-old Chen Xiufang. "Some 40 people turned up in plain clothes, some holding batons. The only thing they said was: "[You] used the internet, you always use the internet!"

"The whole thing lasted four or five hours until the police arrived. My father got hit in the head by six or seven people, with their fists. He is now feeling dizzy and sleeping all the time," she added, claiming the attack had been orchestrated by local officials.

Read more about Mr. Chen's plight here.

3. Fortunately, some government officials are responding to the concerns about pollution. In fact, officials came up with what I think is safe to call a "unexpected proposal": banning outdoor barbecues. As Minnie Chan and Li Jing reported in the South China Morning Post, at least some Chinese citizens are skeptical of the plan:

"Does anyone believe the smog will be easily controlled after a barbecue ban?" one internet user commended. "We are not fools like some leaders."

"What is [the Ministry of Environmental Protection] going to consider next?" another user asked. "Will they ban cooking, too? My family still uses a wood-burning stove."

Other online comments suggested that the ministry was targeting average citizens because it could not come up with pollution-reduction measures that were acceptable to the industries most responsible for pollution.

Read more about the barbecue ban proposal here.

4. Articles about "massive nitrogen pollution" in China, Beijing's air pollution yet again reaching levels "beyond index", and other variations on the pollution theme are out there as well.

And I expect more will be coming.

Masks for Beijing

My Twitter feed has been ablaze with comments about Beijing's recent air quality. Lets just say the folks at Mordor would be proud. The air is horrendous even to many who are accustomed to Beijing. It's a serious issue with implications for daily life. In the words of Didi Kirsten Tatlow on the International Herald Tribune:

With Beijing’s air pollution soaring to seemingly new, awful records this weekend, the classic parenting dilemma of “What shall we do with the kids?” had a grimly obvious answer: Slap on the antipollution face masks and go shopping for another air purifier...

Of course, the problem wasn’t limited to Beijing. As this photograph from NASA appeared to show, pollution was severe across much of eastern China (Beijing is within the blue circle).

And on state media’s lists of the most polluted cities in China on Saturday, Beijing wasn’t even in the top 10. That honor went to Shijiazhuang and other places.

Tatlow isn't the only person in China with an interest in face masks. For example, see these tweets by writer Adam Minter:

You know who's making a killing on the Beijing air disaster? 3M, via their n95 masks. People referring to them as 3Ms. cc @adambelz
— Adam Minter (@AdamMinter) January 14, 2013

China tweeps - search 3M on weibo. PR you simply can't beat.
— Adam Minter (@AdamMinter) January 14, 2013

Other reporters in Beijing are finding it necessary to accessorize as well:

Darth Vader/Hannibal lector anti-pollution mask @nprinskeep @dalyhiggs #hottest accessoryinBeijing #airpocalypse twitpic.com/bv7c9h
— Louisa Lim (@limlouisa) January 14, 2013

Leading to comments such as this:

Is the gas mask to journos in Beijing what body armor is to them in Middle East + Afpak? Looks good on TV. @limlouisa
— Edward Wong (@comradewong) January 14, 2013

Tatlow's comment about Shijiazhuang also caught my eye. In all my travels in China, Shijiazhuang's air "impressed" me the most. It wasn't just the haze preventing a crisp view of buildings just across the street. It was the toxic taste of the air. Yes, the taste. When the broth in a bowl of soup I ordered had the same taste I wasn't sure if the air was overwhelming my taste buds or the soup and the air shared a common compound. Whatever the case, I didn't finish the soup.

With an Air Quality Index (AQI) over 800 having been recently reported in Beijing, comments such as those by Anthony Tao in a recent post may not seem ironic:

Highways closed, flights delayed, social unrest stirred… however, there is some good news. The AQI has remained below 400 for each of the last five hours...

For context on what now could count as "good news", consider this recent "good" tweet from an account which provides regular updates of Beijing's air quality as measured by the US Embassy in Beijing:

01-14-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 282.0; 332; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
— BeijingAir (@BeijingAir) January 14, 2013

Even an AQI of 332 is listed as hazardous. And that's just for a 24-hour exposure. Most people in Beijing are not breathing its air for only 24 hours... See here for more information about the AQI.

There are many great pieces to read on Beijing's recent pollution and the evolving reaction of the Chinese people and new services. A post by James Fallows here mentions and comments on several of them. More on this topic later.

Skies and Clouds in China

Something in all of the following scenes caught my attention earlier this week:

A-Ma Temple

Penha Church

Mandarin's House

Taipa Village

Apartments and a Coca-Cola sign

More colorful apartments

Narrow alley in Taipa Village

It was something that would not have caught my attention in the same way before my move to Shanghai 6 years ago. While living there I grew accustomed to only rarely seeing a type of sky that was far more typical where I had lived in the U.S. Regardless of whether Shanghai's common monotone grey skies were mainly due to the local climate or pollution, seeing blue skies with fluffy or wispy clouds seemed special in Shanghai.

However, during the summer of 2010 I noticed that Shanghai's sky appeared surprisingly "normal" on a regular basis. Was this due to a sudden change in climate? Doubtful. Instead, the dramatic change was due to government imposted measure intended to improve the air quality for the World Expo being held in Shanghai. The connection became "clearer" after the World Expo ended. High levels of pollution enveloped Shanghai and once more blotted out the sky. Yet again, everyone was paying a price for China's development. But at least more people knew what was possible.

While the Expo was open I commented to a Shanghainese friend that it was wonderful to see "normal" clouds in Shanghai. She laughed and said many of her Shanghainese friends were expressing confusion online about the "strange" clouds they were seeing. They were not used to such skies on a regular basis.

Their comments reminded me of a friend from nearby Nanjing. A few years earlier after she returned from Japan -- her first trip outside of China -- she told me she loved it there. I asked her, "Why?"

She quickly responded, "Because its sky is so blue!" When I later explained that the blue skies she saw were common in many cities outside of China she looked bewildered. She had assumed the type of sky she commonly saw in Shanghai was typical for cities everywhere.

So after my recent weeks in Shanghai it was with great joy I gazed upon the above scenes. But they are not from Shanghai. They are from one of China's two special administrative regions -- Macau:

Scene from Penha Hill

I am not sure that the air was truly healthy, but the bluish sky and its clouds were nonetheless welcome. And they made a wonderful day of exploring Macau all the better.

The weather has been noticeably hotter than some of the more comfortable days during my time here several months ago. But I do not mind, I have been distracted by the sky.

Only Some Things are Shared

Here is a view I enjoyed on an early evening this past weekend from near the top of the Shanghai World Financial Center:

It's hard not to be impressed by the architectural wonders and ponder what they imply about China's economic strength.  However, scenes such as this one are worlds away from the lives of most people in China, and they can be symbols of the relatively extreme concentration of China's new wealth.  For many in China, the photos I previously shared of Shanghai's Xiaonanmen are far closer to their daily lives.

The above photo can also be a symbol for how the costs and benefits of China's development can be spread very differently.  Even if one isn't reaping much profit from China's economic growth, you still breathe the pollution from its factories, power plants, and vehicles.  I can't say for sure whether the haze is a result of clouds or pollution but Shanghai certainly has more than enough of the latter -- possibly an unavoidable price for China's rapid economic development.

Two questions to ponder:  Which would be easier to change -- the amount of pollution or the imbalance of wealth?  Which would most people in China prefer to be changed?